13-1 克洛伊的經濟學人 Chloe's Economist ~經濟學人統整2022年度大事~

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出國小撇步：獎學金Allex和Erasmus Mundus分享

The world this year: First Half
全球年度大事件：上半篇

1.Russia invaded Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s excuse for this unprovoked act of aggression was that he wanted to “de-Nazify” the country, a democracy with a Jewish president, Volodymyr Zelensky. The invasion, which Mr Putin thought would end in a quick and easy victory, proved spectacularly incompetent.

俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭。俄國總統普丁對此一無端侵略行為的藉口是想對烏國這個擁有猶太裔總統澤倫斯基的民主國家，進行「去納粹化」。普丁認為此次入侵將以快速輕鬆的勝利告終，但事實證明其根本無法。

2.Russia failed to take Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. Its vehicles and kit broke down. Ukrainians fought hard, picking off Russian fuel and ammunition supplies and pushing the invaders back. America and Europe supplied Ukraine with weapons, cash and intelligence. Russia shelled civilians, tortured captives, kidnapped children and made thinly veiled threats to use nuclear weapons.

俄國沒能拿下烏克蘭首都基輔。其軍武設施皆損壞。烏克蘭人奮力作戰、攻取俄軍燃料和彈藥補給，並擊退入侵者。美國和歐洲向烏克蘭提供武器、現金和情報。俄國炮轟平民、折磨俘虜、綁架兒童並毫不掩飾地威脅使用核武。

3.Some 7.8m refugees fled from Ukraine; another 7m were internally displaced. America estimated that 100,000 troops on each side had died or been injured in the war and 40,000 civilians had been killed.

約 780萬難民逃離烏克蘭；另外有 700萬人在國內流離失所。據美國估計，烏俄雙方各有十萬名士兵在戰爭中死傷、四萬名平民喪生。

4.As the year ended, Ukrainians had recaptured much of the territory Russia had stolen. But Mr Putin drafted hundreds of thousands more troops and bombed Ukrainian electricity infrastructure, hoping to freeze civilians over the winter. Ukrainian generals predicted that Russia would launch a big new offensive in early 2023.

於年底，烏克蘭人奪回俄國所竊取的大部分領土。但普丁增派數十萬大軍並轟炸烏克蘭的電力基礎設施，以盼在冬天凍死平民。烏軍將領們預測，俄國將在 2023年初發起新一波大規模攻勢。

5.Hundreds of thousands of young men left Russia to avoid the draft. Even as a mercenary group led by a pal of Mr Putin scours Russian prisons for new recruits to send to the front, Russians are still banned from calling the war a war.

成千上萬的年輕人離開俄國以避免徵兵。即使由普丁的友人所領導之傭兵團體，也要在俄國監獄中招募新兵派往前線，且俄國人仍被禁止將這場戰爭形容是戰爭。

6.The West imposed sanctions, barring Russia’s banks from SWIFT, a global payments system, freezing many of its foreign assets and banning the sale to it of high-tech components. Hundreds of companies pulled out of Russia, including Apple, BP, Ford and Shell. Russian planes were banned from Western airports. Some wealthy Russians faced sanctions, too. Roman Abramovich gave up his ownership of Chelsea football club.

西方對俄國祭出制裁，將俄國銀行們逐出全球銀行金融電信協會 (SWIFT，全球支付系統)，即凍結其多數海外資產，並禁止高科技零組件出售至俄國。數百家公司撤出了俄國，包括蘋果 (Apple)、英國石油 (BP)、福特汽車 (Ford) 和殼牌 (Shell)。西方國家機場禁止俄國班機入境。一些富裕的俄國人們也面臨制裁。Roman Abramovich (居住在英國的俄裔富豪) 則出售切爾西 (Chelsea) 足球俱樂部。

7.The war caused energy prices to soar. Oil rose to nearly $140 a barrel before falling again. Mr Putin cut off most gas supplies to Europe, where governments scrambled to secure new supplies and subsidise household heating bills. Investment in alternative energy rose.

戰爭造成能源價格飆漲。石油價格下跌前一度飆升至近 140美元一桶。俄國總統普丁切斷大部分輸送至歐洲的天然氣供應。歐洲各國政府爭相確保獲得新的供應，並補貼家庭暖氣費。替代能源的投資增加。

8.The prices of wheat, cooking oil and other essential foods rocketed as the war disrupted exports from Ukraine and Russia. The high cost of fuel and food helped spark civil unrest in over 90 countries.

由於戰爭中斷了烏克蘭和俄羅斯的出口，小麥、食用油和其他必要食品的價格急劇上升。燃料和食品的高成本助燃了九十多個國家的動亂。

9.Germany unveiled a new foreign policy, called the Zeitenwende (turning point). Chancellor Olaf Scholz vowed to raise defence spending and end the country’s long dependence on Russian energy.

德國公佈了一項新的外交政策，並稱其為 Zeitenwende (轉折點)。總理蕭茲 (Olaf Scholz) 鄭重地宣告要提高國防支出並結束對俄國能源的長期依賴。

10.Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO to protect themselves against Russia. This was awkward for Mr Putin, whose excuses for invading Ukraine included a desire to halt the alliance’s eastward expansion. If both countries join, Russia’s border with NATO will have doubled. However, Turkey is holding up the applications.

芬蘭和瑞典申請加入北大西洋公約組織 (NATO，簡稱北約)，以保護自身免受俄國的影響。這對俄國總統普丁來說十分尷尬，因為他入侵烏克蘭的藉口包括希望阻止北約東擴。若芬蘭和瑞典這兩個國家加入 (北約)，俄國與北約的邊界將增加一倍。然而土耳其正在拖延其申請 (程序)。

11.For Britain it was the year of two monarchs, three prime ministers and four chancellors. Boris Johnson resigned, eventually, after becoming the first prime minister to receive a criminal fine (for breaking lockdown rules). “Them’s the breaks,” he said. Liz Truss’s tumultuous seven weeks in Number 10 saw the pound fall to a four-decade low against the dollar, government-bond yields soar and the IMF rebuke her government for its unfunded budget. “The markets will react as they will,” said her chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, and they did. Rishi Sunak restored some calm when he took over from Ms Truss.

對英國來說，這一年經歷了兩位君主、三位首相和四位財政大臣。強森 (Boris Johnson) 在成為第一位收到刑事罰款 (因其違反防疫規定) 的首相後，他最終辭職。強森當時提及“就此打住吧”。特拉斯 (Liz Truss) 在唐寧街十號 (即英國首相官邸) 任職的動盪七週內，英鎊兌換美元的匯率跌至四十年來最低點、政府債券收益率飆升，而國際貨幣基金組織 (IMF) 斥責特拉斯政府的預算案沒有資金。她的財政大臣 Kwasi Kwarteng 表示“市場自然會有反應”，而事實也確實如此。蘇納克 (Rishi Sunak) 在接替特拉斯後 (英國政局/市場) 恢復了些許平靜。

1. Queen Elizabeth II died, aged 96, after 70 years on the British throne. Some 250,000 people filed past her coffin as she lay in state. King Charles III, who has promised to follow his mother’s tight-lipped approach to reigning, will be crowned on May 6th.

英國女王伊麗莎白二世 (Queen Elizabeth II) 逝世，享年 96歲、在英國王位上待了 70年。當她躺在棺材裡時，約有 25萬人經過她的棺材 (致敬/瞻仰)。國王查爾斯三世 (King Charles III) 承諾將遵循其母親口風很緊 (即不隨意發表意見) 的治理方式，並將於 (2023年) 5月6日加冕。

13.The covid-19 virus became less dangerous as more people were vaccinated. Most countries loosened their restrictions, though not in time to allow the unjabbed Novak Djokovic to play in the Australian Open. A truckers’ protest in Canada against covid mandates morphed into a movement against the government, which enforced the Emergencies Act for the first time.

隨著接種新冠疫苗的人數增加，疫情已變得不那麼危險。大部分國家都已鬆綁相關規定，但仍來不及讓未施打疫苗的喬克維奇 (Novak Djokovic，塞爾維亞網球名將) 參與今年的澳洲公開賽。在加拿大，卡車司機抗議新冠相關規定演變成一場對抗政府的抗爭，也讓加拿大政府首次啟動了緊急法案。

1. Xi Jinping secured a third term as China’s leader. His “zero-covid” policy was all but abandoned after protests against harsh lockdowns, the biggest since he came to power in 2012. Covid started to spread rapidly in China. Experts fretted that the government has failed to vaccinate old people properly. China continued to avoid the use of highly effective foreign-made vaccines.

習近平取得擔任中國領導人的第三個任期。他的“清零”政策隨著對於嚴格封控的抗議增加而幾乎取消，因為這些抗議是他 2012年掌權以來面臨過最嚴重的一次。新冠病毒開始在中國快速傳播，而專家們將這個現象歸咎於政府未能有效讓老人們接種疫苗。不過中國仍未開放使用有效的外國疫苗。

1. Inflation soared to double digits in America, Britain and the euro area, prompting central banks to tighten monetary policy sharply. In March the Federal Reserve increased its main rate for the first time since 2018. In November the Bank of England raised its rate by the biggest amount since the 1980s. The European Central Bank lifted its from a negative -0.5% to zero, and then higher.

在美國、英國及歐元區，通膨率飆升至雙位數，讓各國央行必須大幅度緊縮貨幣政策。今年 (2022年) 3月，美聯準 (Federal Reserve，即美國央行) 自 2018年以來首度調升利率。在 11月，英格蘭銀行 (Bank of England，即英國央行) 採取了自 1980年代以來最大幅度的升息；歐洲央行 (European Central Bank) 則將利率從負 0.5% 調升至 0%，且持續上調中。

(感謝每日一經濟學人提供)