16-1 克洛伊的經濟學人 Chloe's Economist~ 美國各大(科技)公司紛紛裁員,但投資人依舊對科技業充滿信心+景氣預測中心孫明德主任演講摘要
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An earthquake of magnitude 7.8 struck southern Turkey and northern Syria, killing at least 16,000 people. A second powerful earthquake followed shortly after. The toll is expected to rise significantly. It was the world’s deadliest earthquake since 2010, when 220,000 people died in Haiti, or 2011 in Japan, where 21,000 were killed, but mostly by a resulting tsunami. Turkey imposed a state of emergency in the affected areas.
土耳其南部和敘利亞北部發生芮氏規模 7.8級地震,造成至少 16,000人死亡。不久之後發生了第二次強震。預計死亡人數將大幅上升。這是自 2010年海地 220,000人死亡或 2011年日本 21,000人喪生 (但主要死於所引發之海嘯) 以來世界上最致命的地震。土耳其在受影響地區實施緊急狀態。
Parts of northern Syria, devastated by more than a decade of civil war, were struck by the earthquakes. Bab al-Hawa, a crucial border crossing with Turkey that allows international aid into the country, was left unpassable. The UN announced that cross-border aid had been temporarily halted.
遭受十多年內戰破壞的敘利亞北部部分地區遭受了地震襲擊。Bab al-Hawa 是通往土耳其的重要邊境口岸,而其允許國際援助進入該國,但無法通行。聯合國宣佈暫時停止跨境援助。
Volodymyr Zelensky visited London, his second trip outside Ukraine since Russia’s invasion. The Ukrainian president gave a speech to Parliament, where he appealed for more combat aircraft, or “wings for freedom” as he described them. Britain promised money to train fighter pilots. Mr Zelensky then headed to Paris and Brussels where he made similar requests.
(烏克蘭總統) 澤倫斯基訪問了倫敦,這是他自俄國入侵以來第二次離開烏克蘭。澤倫斯基向英國國會發表講話,並呼籲增加戰鬥飛機,或他所描述的“自由之翼“。英國承諾出資培訓戰鬥機飛行員。澤倫斯基隨後前往巴黎和布魯塞爾,而他在那裡提出了類似的請求。
In a break from the calendar used by Russian orthodoxy the Ukrainian Greek Catholic church, which counts around 10% of Ukraine’s population as followers, announced that it would shift the celebration of some feast days to match those of Christians in the West. Its Christmas Day will now fall on December 25th instead of January 7th.
烏克蘭的希臘天主教會 (該國約人口的 10% 為信徒) 打破了俄羅斯東正派所使用的日曆,並宣佈將改變一些節日的慶祝活動,以與西方基督徒之慶祝活動相一致。烏克蘭的希臘天主教會的聖誕節現在訂為 12月25日,而不是 (俄羅斯東正派的) 1月7日。
Sweden’s prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, said he hoped talks with Turkey would resume soon over his country’s application to join NATO, which all member states must agree to. Negotiations came to a halt when a copy of the Koran was set alight near the Turkish embassy in Stockholm. Turkey’s president suggested recently that he will look favourably on the application from Finland, which also wants to join, but not Sweden.
瑞典首相 Ulf Kristersson 表示他希望與土耳其就瑞典加入北約之申請盡快恢復談判,因 (北約) 所有成員國都必須同意 (,瑞典才能加入)。當一本 (伊斯蘭經典) 古蘭經在土耳其駐 (瑞典首都) 斯德哥爾摩大使館附近被點燃後,談判陷入停頓。土耳其總統最近表示他會看好芬蘭的申請 (因芬蘭也想加入北約),但他不看好瑞典。
Rishi Sunak appointed Greg Hands as chairman of the Conservative Party, following the sacking of Nadhim Zahawi over a tax scandal. The British prime minister also created a new Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, and promoted Kemi Badenoch to business secretary.
在 Nadhim Zahawi 因稅務醜聞而被解職後,Rishi Sunak 任命 Greg Hands 為保守黨主席。英國首相 (即 Rishi Sunak) 還成立了一個新的能源安全和淨零碳排部門,並將 Kemi Badenoch 提拔為商務大臣。
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, has reportedly pardoned tens of thousands of prisoners, including many who were involved in recent anti-government protests. The head of the judiciary claimed that many of those arrested after the demonstrations had committed their crimes as a result of foreign propaganda. It is unclear when the prisoners will actually be released.
據報導,伊朗最高領袖 (Ayatollah) 哈梅尼 (Ali Khamenei) 已經赦免了數萬名囚犯,而其中包括許多參與近期反政府抗議活動之人士。司法部門負責人聲稱許多在示威活動後被逮捕的人因外國 (政治/洗腦) 宣傳而犯罪。目前尚不清楚囚犯們何時能真正獲釋。
Tens of thousands of Israelis poured onto the streets of 20 cities for a fifth week of protests against the judicial reforms of Binyamin Netanyahu’s government.
數以萬計的以色列人們湧上二十座城市的街頭,抗議 (該國總理) Binyamin Netanyahu 的政府之司法改革。這是連續第五週的抗議活動。
The number of people killed in violence linked to jihadist groups in Africa jumped by 48% in 2022, according to the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, part of the Pentagon. At least 19,109 people were killed, most of them in the Sahel and Somalia, surpassing the previous peak in 2015.
據五角大廈 (Pentagon,即美國國防部) 旗下的非洲戰略研究中心 (Africa Centre for Strategic Studies) 稱 2022年在與非洲聖戰組織有關的暴力事件中遭殺害之人數增加了 48%。至少有 19,109人遇害,其中大部分在薩赫爾 (Sahel) 和索馬利亞 (Somalia),超過了先前 2015年的高峰。
Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, making his third trip to Africa in eight months, met Mali’s military government and promised to provide it with weapons. Russia has been extending its influence in central Africa and the Sahel through weapons sales and contracts for mercenaries from Wagner Group.
俄國外交部長 Sergei Lavrov 在八個月內第三度出訪非洲,會見了馬里 (Mali) 的軍政府,並承諾向其提供武器。俄國一直在透過武器銷售和瓦格納集團 (Wagner Group,俄國私人軍事服務公司) 的僱傭兵合約以擴大其在非洲中部及薩赫爾地區之影響力。
The business of searching the internet, dominated for over 20 years by Google, was on the cusp of disruption, with various announcements that chatbots based on artificial intelligence are to be incorporated into search engines. Microsoft unveiled a version of Bing with the technology that powers ChatGPT, made by OpenAI, a startup, in which Microsoft is a big investor. Finding itself on the back foot,
Google launched Bard, its rival to ChatGPT. However, the company’s share price fell sharply when Bard gave the wrong answer to a question on space telescopes in a video promoting its abilities.
由谷歌 (Google) 主導了二十多年的網路搜尋業務正處於被顛覆的邊緣,即各種公告顯示基於人工智慧的聊天機器人將被納入搜尋引擎。微軟 (Microsoft) 發佈了一款帶有 ChatGPT 技術的 Bing 版本,而該技術由 OpenAI (新創公司) 製造;微軟是其龐大的投資人。由於谷歌發現自己處於劣勢,因此推出了與 ChatGPT 相競爭的 Bard。然而,當 Bard 在宣傳其能力的影片中對一個關於太空望遠鏡之問題給出錯誤答案時,該公司的股價急劇下跌。
It was a mixed week for Microsoft, which received another blow to its planned takeover of Activision Blizzard, a maker of video games. Britain’s competition regulator said the deal would be bad for consumers, and may not approve it. America’s Federal Trade Commission is already suing to block the acquisition.
對微軟來說,這是一個喜憂參半的一週,因它對影音遊戲製造商動視暴雪 (Activision Blizzard) 的收購計畫又遭受了打擊。英國的競爭監管機構表示這項交易對消費者們不利,因此可能不會批准它。美國聯邦貿易委員會 (Federal Trade Commission) 已進行起訴,以阻止該項收購案。
Some of the companies in the embattled Adani Group reported a rise in profits
. That prompted a rally in their share prices after a two-week rout sparked by a short-seller’s claim that the stock was being artificially inflated (Adani denies the allegation). Adani’s controlling shareholders attempted to soothe markets by repaying a $1.1bn loan ahead of schedule.
陷入困境的阿達尼集團 (Adani Group,印度大財閥) 內的一些子公司報告了利潤增長。這促使它們的股價在兩週的潰敗後反彈,而這兩週的潰敗是由一個賣空者聲稱股票被人為哄抬而導致 (阿達尼否認此一指控)。阿達尼集團的控股股東試圖透過提前償還 11億美元的貸款來安撫市場。
Disney announced a restructuring of its business in which 7,000 jobs will be cut,
around 3% of its workforce. It is the company’s first big move since Bob Iger returned as chief executive in November. He said the changes would reshape Disney “around creativity” and make its streaming business profitable.
迪士尼 (Disney) 宣佈業務重組,並將裁員 3%,約七千人面臨失業。這是該公司在 Bob Iger 於 (2022年) 11月重新就任執行長後首次的大動作。Bob Iger 表示這樣的變動能讓迪士尼“重拾創意”,並讓其影音串流業務得以獲利。
The great shake-out continued in the tech industry, as Zoom announced that it would cut 15% of its workforce, or 1,300 jobs.
Eric Yuan, the chief executive, said he would take a cut to his salary and bonus. The company’s headcount has tripled in two years, while post-pandemic demand for its video-conference services has slowed dramatically.
大裁員潮仍在科技業中蔓延:Zoom 也宣佈將裁員 15%,約 1,300個職位。Zoom 執行長 Eric Yuan 表示他將減少自己部分的薪資與福利。該公司員工數在這兩年成長了三倍,但後疫情時代對於 (遠端) 視訊會議的需求成長已大幅減緩。
Investors seem to be enthused by the extensive cost-cutting at America’s tech giants.
Despite Apple reporting a 5% year-on-year drop in revenue for the last three months of 2022, which includes the crucial Christmas season, and Google posting a sharper-than-expected decline in advertising revenue, the Nasdaq composite held steady. The index is up by 15% since the start of the year.
投資人們似乎對於持續縮減支出的美國科技巨頭充滿興趣。即使蘋果 (Apple) 2022年第四季 (包含了重要的聖誕季) 較前一年同期收益下跌 5%、谷歌 (Google) 的廣告收益也比預期的跌幅還要大,但納斯達克綜合指數 (Nasdaq composite) 表現仍然穩定。今年的納斯達克綜合指數已上漲了 15%。
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Britain’s FTSE 100 hit new record highs, surpassing its previous peak of May 2018. The Footsie outshone its American and European peers last year and has risen by 6% since the beginning of this year.
英國富時一百指數 (FTSE 100,由倫敦證券交易所中前一百間市值最大的上市公司所組成,總市值佔該交易所整體市值約 80%) 突破新高,超越了 2018年5月的高點。富時去年 (2022年) 的表現比下了其美國及歐洲的對手,且今年也已上漲 6%。
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The FTSE 100’s gains have come on the back of a surge in the share price BP, which announced a record annual profit, of $27.7bn. The company increased its dividend and share buy-back programme. But it lowered its target for cutting fossil-fuel production, from 40% by 2030 to 25%. Like others in the industry, BP is squeezed between keeping shareholders happy with high returns from pumping oil and gas and the push towards a net-zero economy. “We’re responding to what society wants,” mused its boss, Bernard Looney.
富時一百指數 (FTSE 100) 的上漲要歸功於英國石油 (BP) 的股價大漲,而其去年 (2022年) 利潤破記錄,達到 277億美元。該公司正加速分化業務及股票回購計畫,但降低了縮減石化燃料生產的目標,從 2030年減產 40% 降低至 25%。如同其他同業,英國石油正在持續開採高利潤的石油及天然氣來讓股東們滿意,並在邁向淨零碳排經濟間掙扎。英國石油執行長 Bernard Looney 沈默一段時間後表示“我們回應社會的需求”。
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TotalEnergies (formerly Total) also reported a record annual profit of $20.5bn, or $36bn on an adjusted basis. The combined profits for 2022 of the five biggest Western oil companies have now reached almost $200bn.
道達爾 (TotalEnergies,法國石油公司,全球六大石油公司之一) 也公佈其年度利潤達 205億美元,經調整後為 360億美元。在 2022年,西方五大石油公司的總利潤近兩千億美元。
Russia’s revenues from oil and gas fell by 46% in January, year on year, according to the finance ministry. With its spending on the war in Ukraine soaring, Russia’s monthly budget deficit ballooned to 1.76trn roubles ($25bn).
根據財政部的資料,俄國 (2023年) 1月的石油及天然氣收益同比下降了 46%。加上烏俄戰爭的支出飆升,俄國月度預算赤字激增至 1.76兆盧布 (約 250億美元)。